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“Japan in the 1990’s is a better model for what is likely to happen going forward than the U.S. in the 1930’s. What I expect to see over the next several years (in the economy as well as the stock market) is some sort of hybrid between (a) Japan in the 1990’s, and (b) the U.S. in the 1970’s. I don’t see the economy of 1930’s as even an outside possibility. A nominal decline in the SPX of 80-90% is also not going to happen (the performance of the SPX in inflation-adjusted terms, however, is a very different question).” source...