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“A recent study from the University of Southern California called “Will I Spend More in 12 Months or a Year? The Effect of Ease of Estimation and Confidence on Budget Estimates.” suggests I am not alone in letting optimism lead me to underestimate things, at least in the short term. The research indicated that consumers had a tendency to be over-confident when making estimates for short-term budgets. However, when making long-term budgets, consumers tended to be much more cautious in their estimates, as they acknowledge the greater potential for unexpected surprises.” source...